“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
― Buckminster Fuller ―
“Education is the kindling of a flame, Not the filling of a vessel.¨ ― Socrates –
USL1 is a first humble offering and yet a major step forward to provide the first handful of snow to create snowballs and then the sequence of cascades of snow to resolve not only the top 5 global crises (to complete in a short version for 15-20 years) or 12 global transitions (to complete in 20-30 years) but to push the future of mankind to the entirely new levels.
Currently, there are many grassroot revolutions taking places and they are scattered and not well orchestrated. USL1 (as a biggest human capital revolution trigger thus far) is trying to maximize the harmonious impacts with the Renewable Energy (Energy and Environment), Restorative Organic Agriculture (Food and Environment), and the Circular Economy (Resource and Environment). Together, we will be able to resolve almost all 12 global transition targets by 2035-40 if the UN-led URF1 materializes.
We are to revolutionize the Social Capital (to empower the poorer half and the farmers and cuts off the income inequality radically) and the Nature Capital (to preserve the ecosystem balances) not at the expense of Financial Capital (as the traditional economic practices tend to alienate both very much) by revolutionizing Human Capital with USL1 and using USL1 revolution as a bait for the unprecedented Financial Capital growths that decouple from the sacrifices of the Social and Nature Capitals. So the Human Capital revolutions will trigger the cascades of the revolutions in all other forms of Capitals, especially if the UN-led URF1 treaty is binding and materialized.
The central pieces of USL1 premises are these three: (the rest will be left to URF1 with the UN and governments)
- To catch all the 12 precious and fleeting birds with 2 stones (USL1 and URF1) by 2035-2045 instead of catching several birds – if lucky – with at least 12 stones by 2070-2090 (the UN operations including POST-2015 and SE4All) or catching a few with dozens of stones by 2100+ for the Business As Usual opearations.
- If you can walk, why do you crawl? If you can run, why do you walk? If you can fly, why do you run?
- To feed the poor and hungry, the status quo or BAU will give some money. A better way is to teach the poor how to do fishing. A better yet way to handle this is to teach how to run farms. Even better is how to run restorative organic farm, which is one of the several key parts that USL1 is trying to collaborate to create the collective global movements.
- We all know the immense power of the human potentials. In economic terms, the human potential is called the Human Capital. Instead of abusing it wastefully only as a servant of the Financial Capital (which the economic establishments do), we optimally boost it so that it not only boosts the Financial Capital in an unprecedented scale and pace, but also it becomes the true servant of the Social and Nature Capitals.
- Use the self-interest of each government and nation to help the poorer half of the world while pushing the sustainable and all-inclusive 12 transitions simultaneously. Instead of begging to the rich and the governments for the endlessly struggling reforms or fundings or moneatry helps, we give them the unprecedented scale of baits, the financial motivations (triggered by the massive human capital boosts) – to boost their average surplus annual income per capita 300%-700% even for the next a few decades alone and much more (500-1,000%+) after 2050 – in exchange they commit 1% (as an exchange gift or possibly as the interest-free loans to the poorest half of the world) of their annual GDPs for the global causes and to resolve them all swiftly and quickly. 1% of GDPs of the OECD countries alone will be over half a trillion USD per year, on par with the entire annual military budget of the USA. The cumulative economic gains with the baits through USL1 be thousands of % more than without over the next a few decades alone. Only the ignorant, unwise governments can ignore the collaboration offers.
USL can make the average students learn 12 years of school math in less than 0.5 year, but the ordinary people have been too skeptical as most cannot handle this kind of massive potential.
- So we currently push only up to USL1 (1.0 which will push forward the two of our quasi-Moore´s Law for Economy and Population growths), but it still has the cosmological economic and population consequences.
- USL1 alone will induce the biggest global GDP (per capita) growth changes in history over the next 20-30 years alone because USL1 will more than halve the doubling time for the GDP growths (or GDP per capita) roughly speaking for the majority of countries.
- USL1 can also roughly more than double the population doubling time, which means that we can reduce the pulation growth rates to roughly to half for most countries.
- To resolve the top global challenges mostly as bonuses instead of getting bogged down and shackled by the typical endless divide & conquer rhetorics, schemes of the left vs. the right, Capitalism vs. Communism/Socialism, climate alarms vs. climate denials, Neoliberal vs. Noe-conservative, etc to oblivion. Instead of arguing, we will simply execute the key common ideas and before we know it, we will resolve all the challenges very rapidly.
To resolve our toughest top 5 global crises is like an inevitable love story. USL1 and URF1 together can make this happen. USL1 alone can change the history the way it is, but without its partner, it is like a Pandora´s box only to be tamed by URF1 for which we desperately need your help and hope to raise the awareness of the USL1-5UE-URF1 proposals we are making.
The rest of the magic happens from this point on (at least for the national governments that will embrace the USL1 proposals.)
USL1 is designed to trigger major global transformations. It was created to trigger its induced human capital aided rapid solutions to the top 5 toughest global crises that will cost 4-10x larger than the entire annual world economic size, e.g. the total world (nominal) GDP, which will cost about 300-750 Trillion USD (and the transition to 95% Renewable Energy alone is expected to cost 100-220 Trillion USD that is 1.5-3x larger than the current entire world GDP) which means the average earthlings – us – need to pay the average 7-20% of the national economy (GDP) for over more than half a century. No country on earth can handle this right now, possibly except China in 10 years.
USL1 will be like a traditionally super-rich husband who magically can make not just hundreds of trilions of dollars or but quadrillions of dollars using his magic wand, which can
- revolutionize the entire math-science education,
- cosmologically boost the global economy, (and its rises in GDP per capita will do another magic trick)
- reduce the future population addition by 1-1.4 Billion less by 2050 & assure that the human population doesn´t exceed 10 Billions within next 100 years compared to without USL 1 (as people in the UN know that the fast-growing population is arguably the most serious pressures to not only to the social or economical issues, but also to the consumptions of water, energy, resources, food supplies, environment, and the geopolitical instabilities, etc.)
But USL1 alone can shake up only education, economy, and the population growth, but this urgently needs his counter-part, his spiritual wife, called URF1.
URF1 is to use a portion of the cosmological surplus gains of the annual GDPs to resolve the environmental, energy, and resource as well as the social crises. URF1 cannot exist without the efficiency of USL1. USL1 alone cannot take care of the rest of the environmental and social issues So it urgently tries to find his spiritual wives from every country, NGOs, and the UN.
USL starts as a set of the biggest breakthroughs in Math & Science Education, but as a human capital, its potential economic impacts will be far larger than anyone has suspected. USL1 – although using only 20% of the full capacity of USL (Unified Super Learning) – can literally induce the cumulative surplus world (nominal) GDP of 2.5x larger than the current world economic size in 10 years, 10x larger in 20 years, and 40x in 30 years as a colossal human capital booster after 2-4 years of reforms to go globally (starting with the willing governments first and then the UN).
NOTE: the evidence documents for the top 5 global crises, their costs, and details as to how this is done is currently updated frequently on our BOEC Working Paper series.
First our 2.5 minute quick bite for the USL1-URF1 plans.
Visual Guide to the USL 1 & 2 with the economic contributions for URF (2.5 minutes)
This video is from mid-2014 and doesn´t cover the slowing down of the population issue as it was developed in January 2015.
High pitch: USL1-URF1 are designed to resolve the Top 5 global unsustainable challenges/crises which will cost $400-850 Trillion USD, which will require 8-20% of the average world GDP annually for the next over a half a century (but with the USL1-URF1, they can be resolved within 15-25 years after 5 year reforms, using only a fraction of the global surplus GDP that USL1 can trigger.) USL 1.0 alone will reduce the annual costs (as a fraction of GDP) to only half (if to resolve all for the first 15-25 years) to less than 1/4 (if to resolve them all in about 25-40 years).
These are all essentially to resolve the conflicts between the economic progress vs. the environmental protections sustainability (as well as the social consequences), both extremely rapidly and far more effectively than the conventional modus operandi of the governments and the UN so far (hoping not to offend anyone).
Our original overarching plans for the 5E issues to overcome the 5 top global crises and challenges were as follows. (In April 2015, we expanded this to 12 global transitions as listed below on this page.)
- ENERGY: 95% transition to Renewable Energy & Resource depletion [UNEP, UNDESA, Circular Economy, MacArthur Foundation]
- ECONOMY: Sovereign Debt crisis [for EU, etc], Extreme Poverty [Millennium Development Goals (POST-2015)], and Poverty altogether [beyond the near future mode of the UN]
- Environmental crises: fresh water scarcity, Ecosystem threats, Climate anomalies, non-Biodegradables, Deforestations, etc [UN Water, UNEP, Greenpeace, etc]
- Empowerment: Inequality [governments], Overpopulation growth [UNDESA], Poverty [UNDP], Gender disparity (by empowering girls with the USL1-induced eduacation) [UN in general]
- Education: especially the STEM education stagnation (because they impact the GDP per capita growth more than any other factor, focusing especially on the girl education in the least developed countries first to speed up the current UN operations 2-3 times faster over the next 10 years. [UNDP, UNESCO, etc]
To resolve them all:
- Time necessary to overcome them: the minimum of 50 years with the business as usual, including the plans from the UN´s (No offense intended).
- Total Cost (more conservative): costing roughly 4x-10x of the entire current world economic size with the conventional approaches, averaging about 300-750 Trillion Dollars (US$ at the value of 2015)
- Total Cost (to be more realistic, if the sovereign debts increase more rapidly and if the natural key resources deplete with the oil peak, etc): costing roughly 8x-20x of the entire current world economic size with the conventional approaches, averaging about 0.6-1.5 Quadrillion Dollars (US$ at the value of 2015)
- Instead, we propose USL1-URF1 for resolving them exponentially more efficiently. These are economic and environmental crises (with the social consequences).
- The current annual operation costs of each of the UN and World Bank (for its delivering loans, etc) is roughly about 0.1% of the world GDP. The annual operation cost for the Millenium Development Goals of the UN has been about 0.3% of the OECD GDP, meaning about 0.2% of the world GDP in recent years (although originally supposed to be 0.7% of the OECD GNI). With the USL1-induced reforms as the world GDP will rapidly increase, we try to double-triple the operation costs of the UN and World Bank by 2030. So the two of the mega projects of the UN (POST-2015 and SE4All) can not only meet their targets, but also achieve 2x, 3x more than currently planning.
USL-URF video introduction (10 minutes)
(If some parts move fast, please pause and try to digest at times.)
Please note that this video was made about 10 months ago and a bit out-of-date when USL1 was not pushed and the original version of the USL was pushed. Keeping that in mind, please view it as a blueprint rather than the more updated current USL1 plans and projections. We will try to release the updated video within few months.
This video is from mid-2014 and doesn´t cover the slowing down of the population issue as it was developed in January 2015.
- For some quick visual guides and charts, please click here.
- For some video (5, 10, 18 minute long) introductions click here.
- For a 3 page introduction, click here.
[More developments in early 2015]
VESUSAGT (Very Efficient Simplified Unified, Sustainable All-inclusive Growth Theories) is the theoretical frameworks behind the USL1-induced global transitions. Most of the typical economic theories don´t cross to the public policy tables much partially due to their unnecessary complexities or at least on the surface. So I have tried to unify the entirety of the major socio-economic theories in an overarching and yet very simple manner. I succeeded mostly last fall and winter but I had to revise to make these very accessible and digestible to most of the policy-makers and shakers immediately.
VESUSAGT-based top 12 global transitions, to be triggered by USL1 (to boost the global school math average by 2-5 years, which is roughly advancing about 1 standard deviation compatible to the PISA math scores, in just 2-5 years) coupled with the URF1 (Usl Redistribution Funds 1.0) that we are trying to create with the UN-led binding international treaty hopefully in the General Assembly of 2015 and if that is impossible, then at least to make the UN recognize its potential for the POST-2015 and other top UN projects so that this can be materialized by 2016. We will push 12 major and massive global transitions simultaneously at an unprecedented pace and scale.
Time spans for the USL1 impacts to be very tangible: we are trying to complete the global USL1 reforms between 2016-2020 so that most countries on earth can complete the first stage transitions and their effects will become almost immediately visible for the least developed countries starting 2020 on and visible for the developed countries (OECDs) by around 2022-2026.
The basic magnitudes of estimations may not change too much although with error bars of 10-30% easily. But this will not matter much. If a country becomes hyper richer with the surplus 6x or 8x or 10x on top of the expected 2-3x richer (which means 12x-30x) is far better than 2-3x anyway.
The core ideas behind USL1-VESUSAGT-URF1-12 global transitions are that this massive human capital using the whacky USL1 will boost the math education globally with the extremely rapid reforms in just 2-5 years, which normally may take about 50-80 years in average according to the past history. As the economic gains are so huge that to take a UN treaty and to create URF1 (Usl Redistribution Funds) for making the rich 40-50 countries use the service to provide the 1% of their annual GDPs to commit to the developments of the poorest about 50 countries, and only to the poorest half of these poorest countries not their upper echelons first. Something that has been never done before!
Roughly put with a bit of risk of over-generalization, we can estimate as follows.
1) 1% of GDP of the average Americans or from the OECD countries are equivalent to (using the economic classifications of the World Bank here).
- about 5-15% of GDP to the middle income countries
- 20-50% of GDP to the average Sub-Saharan countries
- 50-100% of GDP to the poorer half of the average Sub-Saharan African or other least developed countries’ people incomes.
Between January and April 2015, there have been more extensive developments and USL1 is trying to trigger the 12 key massive global trasitions between 2020 (the year we try to complete the first USL 1.0 global math-induced reforms in 2020) and 2040.
2) The Millennium Development Goals of the UN was to use 0.7% of the annual GNIs of the OECD countries and wound up lowering to below 0.3% per year in recent years. The moral of the story is that it is hard to get even 0.3% of their GNIs or GDPs per year from the richest countries. Instead, with the USL1, the countries that embrace USL1 will be surplus 3.5-8x richer (after inflation is adjusted, not even nominal) in just a few decades. So what will you choose? Which one is better? To get surplus richer 350-800% around 2040-2050 and to pay 1% of GDP for the top global causes or get nothing and pay just the regular POST-2015 donations?)
3) Each individual USL1 member nations will be expected to commit 3-5% of their annual GDPs to build the infrastructures of their own country at the same time for their own good.)
Most people may think that each of these are mostly unrelated, but they are all intimately inter-connected and cannot be separated from one another. These are the mere blueprints and we expect to adjust accordingly as we try to finalize the preliminary VESUSAGT series sometime in May 2015.
Firstly, the immediate transtion by the USL1 itself directly:
Math & Science Education transition: (boosting the nationwide school math skill levels by 2-5 years, which will be equivalent to about 1 standard deviation boost in PISA math scores, with the reform time of only 2-5 years): the world average takes about 50-80 years to advance 2-5 years (or 1 standard deviation) of school math in general. For example, in the USA or Europe, the western countries advanced their national average math by only about 1-1.3 years (or 0.5-0.65 Standard Deviations or even less) over the past half a century or so to give you the glimpse of how hard it is. Even the fastest math skill growing nations on earth – even if they are lucky and consistently progressing throughout – will take minimum 20-25 years to advance the national average school math skills by 1 standard deviation, and probably much longer than this usually except only one region in the world for several decades, notably from the Eastern Asian countries. So this is the part 1 action plan of the USL1 (to boost the 1 standard deviation of national school math or 2-5 years of level differences) and will start with USL 0.5 (to boost the first 0.5 standard deviation or 1-2.5 years first) with the USL1-embracing member nations. The transitions may take between 2016 and 2020. The science parts will emerge once the first series of the math education transitions are successful.
The first of these 3 transtions (#1-#3 transition will be directly induced by the USL1 alone without URF1 (although further augmented after URF1 obviously). The rest will follow once the URF1 (the UN-led USL1-initiated international treaty) is formed.
- Education transition: the completely free and much more efficient, national level education up to high school in all of the less developed countries. This will take place after the initial about 5-10 years of the successful USL1 implementations of the member nations.
- Economy transition: boosting 2-5 years (or 1 standard deviation) of national average school math is roughly equivalent to boost the SURPLUS Real GDP per capita by 2% over the next 60-80 years (which is roughly like doubling the GDP growth rates of most countries, meaning the GDP doubling time will roughly be halved.) according to the Hanushek-Woessmann theories. Another version is that GDP per capita in PPPs will be about SURPLUS 8x more than without USL1 over the next half a century. My current estimations show that USL1-embracing countries may have typically 4-6 times larger GDP per capita in PPPs in just 20-40 years, especially for the less developed countries.
- Population transition: according to most of the major population growth projections in the world, the world population will be roughly between 9-11 billions around 2050. About 90% of the growths for the next 35 years will take place in the less developed countries, especially from the Sub-Saharan Africa. USL1 can trigger the new growth limits by 40-70%, which will have the profound the implications on the population-induced pressures on foods, water, resources, energy, GHG, and various instabilities around the globe. Keeping the population to 8-8.5 Billion instead of 9-11 Billion by 2050 is what USL1 will be able to contribute.
- Energy transition (Renewable Energy Transitions of 95% in 15-20 years, not 70 years, etc.)
- Agriculture transition (To move away from the currently popular and yet environmentally devastating industrial agricultures to the quasi-100% organic agricultures particularly utilizing the permacultures and the restorative organic agricultures), which can reduce the water use and GHG emissions by 1/3 and much more).
- Water efficiency transition (To reduce the water use by 30-50%, which will roughly compensate the water demand rises over the next 25-35 years by 2050 of the UN targets)
- Meat diet transitions: to reduce the current levels to half or even ¼ of the current level by 2050 (and I have various specific detailed plans) as meat consumptions are heavily responsible for the water shortages, Methane emissions, and the food shortages, etc.
- Resource transition: to the complete recycling to 99% (Circular Economy): this will lessen the pressures on the resource, water, energy, material, and environment significantly.
- Climate change mitigation transition: this will arise as just a bonus.
- Environmental transition (the rapid reductions of the deforestations, potential climate anomalies, toxic chemical reductions, Fukushima radiations, etc.)
- Poverty elimination transition (not just the UN´s End the Extreme Poverty with those who earn less than $500 per year, but I mean end those who earn less than $4,000-6,000 from the entire world in just 20-30 years, not next century). This goes far beyond UN operations for the POST-2015 by about 3x-4x by 2030, but to 10x by 2040.
- Equality transition (starting with the fair income distributions. Yes I have already alternative to replace the Gini coefficient which most economists use.) I am suspending to release this for now because the corporate hyper powers in the governments may not like my ideas. So I need to release after my ideas start building momentum.
We are all keenly aware of the current unfettered abuses of the corporate free market capitalism. Instead of staying with the status quo, our plan is to run most of the USL x.x series as the global social enterprises called UGNSE 1.0 (Usl Global Network of Social Enterprises) instead of running as corporations.
- UGNSE1 Networks: we will try to create a Social Enterprise branch in each city, state, and the nation. As such, the significant portions of the profits will be redistributed for the developments locally for the people, not for the centralizations of the capital for the few financially privileged groups of each states or countries.
- We hope to create this as a global social movement so that we can mobilize the supports for each community beyond the typical governmental influences.
- To create a series of local operations and would like to invite the various global leaders and pioneers who share the similar sprits and philosophies as ours.
- So everyone can make the honest earnings while to decentralize the capital and to empower the poorer 60% of the world population, meaning those who live with less than 10k USD per year more or less, not to mention to empower the children and women in the poorest 30% of the world population.
- We are currently seeking the collaborations with the various governments, NGOs, the UN, UNESCO, civil societies, philanthropists, Social Enterprises, hubs of similar interest around the world.
We are currently compling a working paper series called BOEC (Back Of the Envelope Calculations) Working Paper series which presents with the concise and easy-to-digest approaches primarily targeted for the policy-makers & shapers and the general public so that they can understand the logic and evidences without advanced math or economics (so that anyone with the 10th grade math can understand and at times if integrations or Differential Equations are needed, they are referred to the Appendices and still tried to minimize the complex logic or calculations as much as possible.) You can click it here as we are frequently adding and updating them since January 2015.
- For the TV coverages of the USL pilot studies.
- For the video evidences and testimonials for the USL´s earlier pilot studies, click here.
- For our frequently updated archive for the various claims (theoretical, economic justifications) for the modus operandi of USL1
- Working Papers that explain the mechanism behind the USL1 operations
For the Education authorities
- For the education authorities here.
- Some of the major online math assessment organizations that we can collaborate with
For the UN, NGOs, and governments
- USL1 for the 5 regions (that face the critical cultural or environmental crises)
- For the UN here.
- For the NGOs, here.
- UBN1 for the sub-Saharan African and South Asian countries and the African Un.
- UBN1 for the Himalayan regions (for the Indian, Nepal, and Bhutan governments, related NGOs and the UN)
For the Enterprise collaborations
- For the USL material proposals for the governments, NGOs, the UN, and civil societies as well as for the potentials supporters such as the philanthropists, investors, and media, and the proposed USL1-induced global Social Enterprise Networks (called UGNSE1 for the worldwide enterpreneurs), etc, please browse through our blog here.
- For the investors here
For more of our older materials, please click here for our blog.