Global Future Economic Growths vs. USL-URF contributions via UN
Here, we will make some rough estimations on the global economic growths with vs. without USL-URF.
Before we start here, please get the background information of the human capital boost by math education advancing in years vs. the massive GDP increases:
For more on this, please click here.
Let´s make some rough estimations, by bulk figure average GDP growth rates in continents (although there are big deviations obviously)
As of early 2014,
- Asia non-Chinese average GDP growths: about 5%
- In Sub-Saharan Africa: averaging about 4-6%, say about 5%
- Latin Amrica average about 4%
- Central America: about 3-5%
- South America: typically about 4-5%
- North America 2-2.5%
- Oceanea: 2-2.5%
- EU: about 0.2-0.3%
At the current rate, to double their economy,
- EU have to wait to wait over 100 years
- North America: about 30 years
- Central America: about 25 years
- South America: about 17 years
- Africa y Asia: about 15 years
So, to double their economies, they have to wait 15-30 years and EU for over a century. At the same time inflations are high and the national debts climb up fast. Can you live in such a depressing world? Although these were the rough estimations, most countries seem to be stuck at the current situation.
I found it hard to live in such conditions. For me, there got to be a way out of this collective impass. In contrast, let´s examine what happens if the annual GDP growth rates become 9%, 12.5%, 18%. Between 2.5-8.5 years, they all at least double. For the rest, you can see them here.
For the MDGs, the majority of the extreme poverty regions currently are located in the sub-Saharan Africa (almost 2/3 of them) and South Asia (close to 1/3 of them).
So, let us here see how much the first series of URF (once the UN establishes an international treaty) will impact the poorest regions in the world to basically end the extreme poverty within 4-5 years while the financial setup will be ready within 1 year or so.
The time lag for the URF effects to become very tangible:
In the following analysis, we assumed that the reform of USL-URF for advancing 2 year math take about 2-4 years instead of the typical reform years that Professor Hanushek and Woesmann assumed in their analyses. Since the URF reforms will be so quick that we present here the charts after a few several reforms take place. So when you look at the charts, please assume that there will be 2-4 years of reform years, and so these charts take place after these 2-5 years and would be no immediate kick in effect.
Also, depending on the current economy of particular countries, the reform time will be a bit different:
- For the poorer, least developed countries, the reforms may literally take 2-4 years as the majority of students there – if they are lucky – finish their education with only grade 4-6.
- For the mid-tier, developing countries, the reforms may literally take 4-8 years as the majority of students there – if they are lucky – finish their education around the grades 5-9 and only 5-15% of the students may enter tertiary education.
- For the developed countries, the reforms may take 6-12 years as the majority of students graudate from high school
Later after the second or third series of URF, the entire URF reforms may take 10-15 globally.
|Time it takes to n times (years)||GDP growth rates of 1%||GDP growth rates of 2-5%||GDP growth rates of 9%||GDP growth rates of 12.5%||GDP growth rates of 18%|
|URF offered to which countries||G-20 countries||Below G-20 or mid-tier countries||Poor or the poorest countries|
|URF % to return||Without URF||20-35% of their GDP||2-20% of their GDP||1-5% of their GDP|
|2x||80 years||15-30 years||8.5||6.5||4.5|
Later on, we will determine the various ways to determine URF % to various countries.