How fast can URF accomplish the entire goals of EFA and MDGs once the UN establishes the international treaty for URF?
How fast URF can accomplishes the entire EFA and MDGs once the UN establish the international treaty for URF?
The basic ideas as to why and how URF can accomplish all the goals of EFA and MDGs at least economically
Our estiminations here will be a bit different from the standard estimations by Jeff Sachs or the UN reports, etc. Let´s try some of our version with regared to USL.
- The budget to accomplish EFA will cost around 20 Billions usd annually.
- For Jeff Sachs, the annual cost for ending the extreme poverty is about 195 billions usd annually.
- In various UN estimations, the budget to accomplish the entire MDGs are $359-500 Billions per year
To be safe, we may need close to 450 Billions of usd annually to accomplish all.
From the beginning, the main goals of USL have been to accomplish most of the MDGs (including EFA). So, the basic plan of USL is to create URF (Usl Redistribution Fund) by collaborating with the UN and generating at least half a trillions of USD annually.
The not-so succesful budget strategy attempted in the past
In 1970, rich nations committed to contribute 0.7% of each of their GNPs to end the extreme poverty. Most of them paid less. Some much less. The data can be seen here.
Official Development Assistance in 2005
(source: OECD 2005 )
(*) Indicates countries that have NOT set a timetable for 0.7%.
|Country||Aid as % of
|Country||Aid as % of
|Australia (*)||0.25||Japan (*)||0.28|
|Canada (*)||0.34||New Zealand||0.27|
|Italy||0.29||United States (*)||0.22|
We need a radical solution that doesn´t beg for charity, but to give them back by contributing to the global causes. The answer is URF.
The solution of USL using URF to resolve all MDGs in 4-8 years
USL decided to use the science of economics.
- As far as I know, the causal relations between the math proficiency of a nation vs. GDP growths of the corresponding nation have been very well established, especially by the studies of Professor Eric Hanushek from Stanford University, etc.
- Since USL can make average students learn the entire 12 years of math within 1 year (as enough have been proved since fall of 2013), but it needs a bit more tweaking to be accepted by the international community.
- So, we decided to propose an international collaboration for USL-UNESCO pilot studies for the post-MDGs (UPSPM) and with their concrete results, we will be able to propose URF to create an international treaty with the collaboration of UN.
- At the current stage, we plan to make the URF member countries to pay 3% of one´s GDP to advance 1 year of math in each country – which is normally very difficult to achieve – because even if a country is lucky enough to advance one´s average math proficiency, she may advance half a year level math in 20 or 30 years IF LUCKY as shown by all the PISA or TIMMS studies. Even to advance 1/2 year level math in 20-30 years rarely happened indeed.
Key points established by Professor Eric Hanushek from Stanford University: that 1 year advancing math is roughly equivalent to the 10% average surplus GDP annual growth every year for the decades yet to come for Americans (according to Professor Eric Hanushek).
The time span that this takes place is usually for the rest of this century.
- For the Americans, 10% of the average surplus GDP each year for advancing 1 year level of math
- Similar rule applies to Canada and Latin America more or less.
- For the average EU countries, the rates may be overall estimated to be about 6-8% by advancing 1 year of math level.
- For the average countries in sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia, 1 year math level advancement will produce 8-15% boost in their annual GDP increases.
GDP projections based on the math advancing only 1/2 or 1 year level math by Professor Hanushek was submitted to UNESCO´s EFA Global Monitor report in 2012. You can check it here.
The following discussion was included here:
Table 2. Present Value of future gains relative to current GDP
Change in long-run growth rate (independent of duration of reform)
+25 points on PISA is 0.50%
+50 points on PISA is 0.99%
What is written above is for advancing 1 year math level nationwide. USL, however, will advance 2 years math levels to URF member countries once the UN international treaty is materialized.
So The GDP growth will be doubled (about 20% each year after linearized) for each case.
What does this mean to USL and URF to be proposed to UN?
The similar rules apply, as the relationship is more or less linear. The following is more reliable for the Northern Americans. For the rest, there will be a bit of deviations.
- So, advancing the average 2 years of math (with USL) will 20% more GDP surplus more earning than without for the rest of our lives.
- Or roughly, the average wages will increase about 40% surplus over the rest of your career most likely.
- This means that in 20 years, the economy will be 5 times bigger than the current GDP (when linearized) for advancing math 1 year.
- or 5 times bigger surplus economy in 10 years by advancing 2 year math, especially for the Northern Americans (if you ignore the non-linear factor) for Americans or 10 times bigger economy than now.
- You can say similar things for most of the OECD countries.
The value of this of merely advancing 2 years of math quickly:
- The value of this, over the next 20 years for Americans for instance, will be about $150 Trillions of surplus national economy.
- Basically 5 times bigger economy in a decade and 10 times bigger economy in 2 decades although in Eurpe, the values will be perhaps 10-30% less often.
- Since all this will take place online, the progress will be very rapid, not a few decades, but within 1-2 years.
The first URF plan based on USL´s first series and its implication for MDGs and EFA:
- The first series of URF will advance the average math, focusing on the first 4 grades of the primary schools in North America and EU countries
- Will advance 2 years of maths out of the 4 years in these countries.
- This process will be all done via online education.
- The international treaty that URF will try to establish is that for the first URF series, the URF member countries participating in the math advancement have to contribute to the MDGs and EFA as follows.
- the URF member countries have to contribute 3% of their GDP for the 1 year of math advancements they get.
- So, the URF member countries have to contribute 6% of their GDP for the 2 years of math advancements they get
- URF funds will be redistributed all the poorest 30-50 countries first to build their educational infrastructures.
- for the United States, suppose their GDP is 16 Trillions USD. If 2 years of the primary school math is advanced out of 4 years, the USA government has to pay 6% of their GDP, which is about 1 Trillions of USD annually currently.
- If you gain 20% and pay the URF due 6%, that is still the surplus of 14% and the average American workers will have 25-30% higher average salary annually for the rest of your life more or less.
- So, if the GDP of the USA is 17 Trillions of USD, by advancing 2 years of math in primary school maths, the URF due for Americans will be about 1 Trillions of USD per year while they have the extra 2.7 Trillions of USD surplus income annually after this URF payment.
- Depending on the rate of the national debt accumulations, this will take care of the entire currently about 17 Trillions of USD national debt in 7-10 years.
- (There is absolutely no better way to end the debt crises that plauge so many western developed countries practically unless the politicians root out the fundamental problems.)
- What kind of national debt crises do most of the EU countries go through? Please think hard if there is any better way to resolve this issue.
- For Canadians, Australians, and EU nations, the ratio is basically the same. The total economy of EU is about the same size of the USA. So if the average math of EU advances by 2 years, you can say the same thing in proportion. The EU nations may pay about the same amount.s
- If about 5-7 of the G20 countries, e.g. Canada, Australia, Mexico, etc, become URF members with the composite GDPs of about 9 Trillions of usd annually for advancing 2 years of maths, then their annual contributions to URF will be about 0.5 Trillions of usd, which may be enough to end the entire MDGs, within a few years once the URF is established.
- The worst case scenario: only about 7 of the 40 richest countries with the average GDPs of about 0.4 T usd join URF, their composite GDPs will be about 3 T usd, 6% of that will be about 180 Billions of usd annually, which may be barely enough to take care of the extreme poverty and EFA at the same time (when combined with other global contributions outside URF a bit).
Q: Why URF may be the best economic solutions ever to resolve most of the most critical global causes?
- This will be much more efficient than begging 0.7% of the donations from the rich countries. What is better? Begging 0.7% of their GDPs annually with the good will for free or charging 6% of their GDPs which will boost their average GDPs 14% surplus average each year for the rest of their lives?
- So giving out 3 for the 10 that surplus you get due to URF is not a bad idea.
- For many countries, their dilemma is this. Most of the western developed countries grow only few % each year if they are doing well. The average EU countries´economic growth is barely nothing and crawling, e.g. 0.2-0.3% annually in the recent years.
- So if they don´t join, they contribute almost nothing for the global goals and stagnate. On the other hand, if they join, they are mostly guaranteed to progress much faster than they can only dream of without USL.
So, how long will it take to resolve all these EFA and MDGs?
- With the worst case scenario of URF of 180 Billions usd annually – with some other global donations – we can literally end the budget shortage problems for EFA and the extreme poverty within 1-2 years once URF kicks in.
- If 1/3-1/4 of G20 countries join, almost all MDGs can be accomplished, in a few or several years.
- If USA or EU join in, the head aches and hearts aches of the MDGs will be long gone past. This may take several years possibly.
- So I dare say that within 5 years or so, we may be able to accomplish virtually almost all of the post-MDGs.
What is next?
What we have expressed here is only the beginning. We are trying to make the world much more far and equal in every aspect within 10-15 years. We can accomplish this much with skipping 2 years of math and using URF.
After the initial success, we will gradually release the next series to cut off another 2 years, then another 2 years, then another 2 years, etc.
Where are we heading?
To a new world where the math and science proficiency of everyone is like our everyday uses of cars, PC, tablets, electricity, and even water. For us, to achieve EFA and then MDGs are simply warm up exercises. When the time comes, we will release far far stronger paths that will totally revolutionize every possible way of education and communication, but we got to overcome the goals of MDGs first.
How long will it take to get there?
Once we achieve most of the MDGs or post-MDGs, then it can take even less than 10 years, but if the world responds very slowly, it can take 15-20 years, which we hope not. We hope to achieve all within a decade. Our move will depend on the people of the world and the will of people.